By Issy Ronald, CNN
(CNN) — Israel exchanged further strikes with Iran overnight into Tuesday while it continues its assault on Lebanon, intensifying a conflict which has already killed hundreds, caused Washington to warn Americans to leave much of the region and threatens to spark a global energy crisis.
Tehran has retaliated with a campaign aimed at US bases and embassies in a host of Middle Eastern countries, as well as oil refineries and tourist infrastructure like airports and hotels.
As the US-Israeli war on Iran intensifies, here’s what to know.
What’s happening now?
- Continuing Israeli strikes: Israel launched simultaneous strikes on Tehran and Beirut on Tuesday morning, targeting both Iranian military sites and Hezbollah. Israeli forces have also seized more locations in southern Lebanon, carrying out strikes against what it says are Hezbollah’s sites in the country. The Israeli military also shut all crossings in and out of the occupied West Bank, leaving Palestinians unable to access urgent aid as settler attacks rise.
- Israel bombs compound of group that chooses Iran’s new supreme leader: Tuesday afternoon’s strike was intended to hit the Assembly of Experts’ compound in the holy city of Qom while its members were voting to elect the country’s next leader, an Israeli source told CNN, but Iranian state media said the building was evacuated before the attack.
- US closes two embassies amid Iran strikes: One in Riyadh was hit by two suspected Iranian drones, prompting it to close Tuesday. Another in Kuwait announced it was closing until further notice. The US State Department ordered non-emergency US government personnel and their families to depart from Jordan, Bahrain, Iraq, Qatar, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates due to security concerns.
- Iran’s response: In Israel, seven people sustained light injuries caused by shrapnel from an intercepted missile. Debris from another intercepted Iranian drone caused a fire at the UAE’s Fujairah Oil Industry Zone while Bahrain, Kuwait and Qatar all reportedly had their airspace breached. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) also targeted Kurdish groups in the semi-autonomous Kurdistan Region of Iraq, though the size of the attack was disputed.
- Americans urged to leave Middle East: The US State Department urged American citizens to depart from countries across the Middle East using available commercial travel, even as much of the region’s airspace remains closed and most flights are cancelled. In Dhahran, Saudi Arabia, the US embassy told US citizens to shelter in place due to an “imminent” threat of missiles and drone attacks, while the US embassy in Oman told its staff to shelter in place, before lifting that order later in the day.
- Iran death toll climbs: More than 787 people have been killed in Iran since the war began, the semi-official Tasnim news agency reported Tuesday, citing the Iranian Red Crescent. One Tehran resident described enduring a “heavy bombardment” on Monday night. “It feels like an onslaught,” said the 36-year-old man, whom CNN is not naming.
- Coming “big wave” of US strikes against Iran: US President Donald Trump warned Monday that the US hasn’t “even started hitting them hard,” while a senior US official told CNN on Monday night that Washington was preparing for a “major uptick” in attacks over the next 24 hours.
- Damage to Iranian nuclear facility: The United Nations’ nuclear watchdog confirmed damage Tuesday to a fuel enrichment plant at one of Iran’s most sensitive nuclear installations following US-Israeli strikes.
Why did the US and Israel attack?
- White House offers competing, shifting rationales for war: Three days after the US and Israel first launched their offensive against Iran, the Trump administration is still offering different explanations for doing so – at times exaggerated or at odds with US intelligence – as senior officials scramble to justify what has been characterized as a preemptive strike.
- What was the threat posed by Iran? In short, the Trump administration still hasn’t clearly defined that. After the first wave of strikes, Trump cited an “imminent threat” to the US – claims contradicted in Pentagon briefings to Capitol Hill that stated Iran was not planning to attack unless struck first.
- What about the nuclear threat? Before striking Iran, Trump and his top officials overstated just how close Tehran was to developing a nuclear weapon, sources told CNN. Trump repeatedly said that Tehran’s nuclear program was “obliterated” following US strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities last summer – but in recent weeks, administration officials have suggested without offering evidence that Iran posed an imminent nuclear threat. Iran has always insisted its nuclear program is peaceful.
- What about regime change? That’s not a clear goal either. One end result Trump has floated is “freedom for the people” in Iran and for Iranians “to take back your country.” At the same time, he has said that a similar outcome to Venezuela – where US forces seized President Nicolás Maduro but left much of the administration in place – would be “a perfect scenario.” And US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth insisted Monday “this is not a so-called regime change war.”
Who is leading Iran now?
- Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s death: Iran’s supreme leader was killed Saturday, alongside several other senior military officials, leaving the Islamic regime battered, but still able to launch attacks across the region.
- A three-person leadership council now holds power until a new supreme leader is named. It includes the country’s moderate president, Masoud Pezeshkian; the hardline head of the judiciary, Gholamhossein Mohseni Ejei; and a senior cleric, Alireza Arafi.
- When will a new supreme leader be named? That’s still unclear, though Iranian officials have indicated the process could be quite quick. The country’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi said a new supreme leader could be chosen within days.
How will this impact oil prices?
- Oil prices continue to climb Tuesday: The price of gasoline in the US had its largest one-day increase since Hurricane Katrina in 2005, soaring 11 cents to $3.11 a gallon on average, in the latest reading from AAA. Brent futures, the global oil benchmark, jumped another 6% to $82 a barrel, per FactSet data. Natural gas futures, the European benchmark, climbed another 34% to around €59 ($68) per megawatt hour, as Qatar’s biggest gas producer stopped production after Iran targeted one of its energy facilities.
- Iran effectively closes Strait of Hormuz: An adviser to the commander of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) warned Monday that vessels passing through the strategically important waterway would be targeted.
- About one fifth of the world’s global trade in LNG and daily oil production passes through the narrow stretch of water off Iran’s southern coast, and there are few other options for transporting those cargoes to global markets.
- Stocks slid in Europe and Asia on Tuesday, reflecting the growing anxiety of markets.
How is the conflict affecting travel?
- Thousands of tourists have been left stranded by the aviation chaos in the Middle East, with large parts of the region’s airspace closed, forcing airlines to cancel flights.
- Some airlines resumed a limited service on Monday night. Emirates and Fly Dubai resumed some flights but all of Etihad’s commercial flights to and from Abu Dhabi remain suspended until at least Tuesday afternoon, as do Qatar Airways’ flights until at least Wednesday morning.
- Other Western countries are advising citizens to avoid the region too. Canada told tourists to leave the UAE once they can get on a flight and advised avoiding all travel to much of the Gulf. The United Kingdom told British nationals in Bahrain, Israel, Kuwait, Palestine, Qatar and the UAE to register their presence to receive direct updates from its foreign ministry.
How long could this war last?
- Trump has said he expects the war to last four to five weeks, but observers note those timelines could potentially change if he faces increasing political pressure domestically or decides his objectives have been reached.
- Iran’s stockpiles of missiles and drones are depleting but it’s unclear by how much.
- Arab states’ air defenses are diminishing too, as they are deployed time and time again to intercept Iranian attacks, though again it isn’t clear how well-stocked they were before Saturday.
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