Multnomah County’s Preschool for All program is on track to remain financially sustainable as it expands toward universal access, but a new advisory report warns that rising costs, shifting demographics and economic uncertainty could shape how equitably the program serves families in the years ahead.
The program, funded by a voter-approved tax on high-income households, is designed to provide free preschool to all 3- and 4-year-olds by 2030. For many families, particularly Black, low-income and historically underserved communities, it represents one of the region’s most significant long-term investments in early learning, economic stability and opportunity.
A Technical Advisory Group convened by the county found that the program’s current tax structure is likely sufficient to sustain Preschool for All over a 20-year period under most economic conditions.
But that conclusion comes with important caveats.
The group’s findings are based on economic modeling that tested the program’s finances across a range of scenarios, including changes in revenue, enrollment and program design. In most cases, the program maintains positive fund balances over time. However, those projections depend heavily on assumptions that may shift in the coming years, particularly around costs and participation.
One of the most significant uncertainties is the rising cost of preschool.
County projections assume costs will grow about 4 percent annually, but advisory group members said that estimate may be too low. National trends suggest costs are more likely to increase between 5 percent and 6 percent each year, driven by higher wages for early childhood educators, rising facility costs and the additional resources required to provide high-quality, inclusive care.
Those costs are especially relevant for a program like Preschool for All, which is designed to serve children with a wide range of needs. The report notes that 17 percent of children currently enrolled have disabilities, a significantly higher share than in traditional preschool settings, reflecting a commitment to accessibility that can also increase the cost of services.
At the same time, the number of children expected to participate in the program has shifted.
Updated projections suggest Multnomah County will serve about 9,800 children by 2030, well below earlier estimates of more than 13,000.
That change is largely driven by declining birth rates and continued out-migration of families with young children, trends that have reshaped the county in recent years. While lower enrollment reduces financial pressure on the program, it also raises broader questions about who remains in the county and whether those most in need will continue to have access to services.
The report also points to uncertainty in the broader early learning system. Programs such as Head Start and other state or federally funded services play a role in meeting demand. If those programs face funding cuts or reductions, more families could turn to Preschool for All, increasing both demand and costs.
To address these uncertainties, the advisory group recommended several steps aimed at strengthening the program’s long-term stability while maintaining flexibility.
Among the most significant is a recommendation to delay a planned 0.8 percent tax increase, currently scheduled for 2027, until 2029. The group’s modeling shows that postponing the increase would not jeopardize the program’s financial stability under most scenarios, while giving county leaders more time to better understand actual costs and participation trends.
The group also recommended commissioning a detailed preschool cost study specific to Multnomah County. Current projections rely heavily on national data, which may not fully capture the true cost of delivering high-quality care locally, particularly in a system designed to prioritize equity and inclusion.
A separate recommendation calls for improved demographic forecasting, including updated data on births and migration, to help the county more accurately anticipate how many children will need services in the coming years.
To prepare for economic downturns, the advisory group emphasized the importance of maintaining a dedicated reserve fund. That reserve would allow the program to continue operating and serving families even during periods of reduced tax revenue.
The report also examined other potential policy options, including adjusting tax thresholds for inflation, offering tax credits and introducing cost-sharing for extended-day preschool services. However, advisory group members did not recommend moving forward with those proposals at this time, citing uncertainty about their long-term impact.
Throughout its analysis, the group noted that long-term financial forecasts come with inherent risk, particularly for a program funded by income taxes tied to high earners, whose earnings can fluctuate significantly depending on economic conditions.
Even so, the report concludes that Preschool for All is on a stable path as it continues to expand, provided county leaders remain responsive to changing conditions and willing to adjust policy as new data emerges.
The Multnomah County Board of Commissioners is expected to use the report’s findings to guide future decisions on funding, tax policy and program design as the county works toward making preschool universally available.
