The control of the U.S. Congress could hinge on the Portland-to-Bend district race. Democrats hold a 220-209 majority in the U.S. House of Representatives, with six vacancies. All 435 seats are on the November ballot, with Republicans needing to pick up only five seats to take control. The newly realigned 5th Congressional District stretches from Portland, across the Cascades, to Bend.
Two years after a Democratic surge swept Donald Trump out of the White House and gave Democrats control of both chambers of Congress, the drift has be in reverse now. The Center for Politics at the University of Virginia, a top election monitor and forecaster, puts the number of seats that are the political equivalent of a coin flip at 29. Redistricting has given most seats a significant to insurmountable partisan tilt for one party or another.
The 5th district was formed from Democratic-led redistricting. It was required to reflect population changes since the 2020 U.S. Census. It’s topography has 521,813 voters in a curving stretch from Portland in Multnomah County, through Clackamas, Marion and Linn counties, then over the Cascades following U.S. Highway 20 to take in the northern part of Deschutes County.
The district has 169,844 registered Democrats and 144,776 Republicans. It is said to have the smallest partisan gap of any of Oregon’s six congressional districts. Only party members could vote in the primary to choose their nominees. However, it is the 170,033 non-affiliated voters who could possibly cast ballots in either primary.
The Center for Politics rates the district as having a Democratic advantage of just 3 percentage points. Experts are looking at past election results in the precincts that make up the new district to try and figure out what the outcome will be.
