President Donald Trump has issued a warning about potentially deploying the National Guard to cities such as Chicago, New York, Seattle, Baltimore, San Francisco, and Portland, Oregon, citing what he describes as rampant crime. However, recent data indicates that violent crime in these areas, as well as across the nation, has been on the decline in recent years.
Homicide rates in the first half of 2025 showed a significant decrease compared to the same timeframe in 2024, continuing a trend observed post-pandemic throughout the United States. Trump, who has already exercised federal control over policing in Washington, D.C., has criticized these six Democratic-led cities, all located in states that opposed him in the 2024 election. Notably, he has not suggested deploying the National Guard to any major cities in Republican-leaning states.
Data reveals that aggravated assaults, which encompass nonfatal shootings, decreased in Chicago, Portland, Seattle, Baltimore, and San Francisco by June, while remaining stable in New York. Although reports of rape increased in both New York and Chicago during the first half of the year, other cities experienced declines, including a notable 51% drop in San Francisco.
The crime index also reflects a general decline in property crimes, such as theft, burglary, and motor vehicle theft, across these six cities during the initial six months of 2025. Trump has previously exaggerated crime statistics in Washington when his administration increased federal presence in the city, citing the local police department’s challenges. He infamously referred to Baltimore as a “hellhole” during a Cabinet meeting and mentioned the possibility of “sending in the troops.”
In contrast, cities in Republican states have faced their own crime challenges. For instance, Charlotte, North Carolina, reported 105 homicides in 2024, up from 88 the previous year, with vehicle theft rates more than doubling between 2020 and 2024. Indianapolis recorded a homicide rate of 19 per 100,000 residents in 2024, significantly higher than New York’s rate. Notably, Trump has not criticized larger cities in Republican states.
Democratic officials in the cities targeted by Trump have strongly opposed the notion that their residents require the National Guard, asserting that local law enforcement can adequately address crime concerns.
